Based on the analysis of the trend of diffusion of the virus in Italy and the reduced mortality ratio shown by data, THRENDS provides an accurate analysis of the social distancing scenario for Italy. The impact of social distancing measures is investigated for several tourism industries (events, hospitality, aviation, leisure activities, etc.). If social distancing continues to be practiced even after June 15th, the impact on tourism demand will be enormous.

The research highlights the need for the Italian Government to keep a constant control on the real utility and necessity of social distancing as long as the virus diffusion continues to drop and eventually ends.